Good Morning, hope you all had some rest and relaxation. Here’s your update for the week.
Globally we’re at 1,921,645 confirmed cases, 119,353 people have died. 24% have recovered. Fatality Rate is at 6.2%. Australia is at 6,366 total confirmed cases. Here’s how we are doing compared to the kiwi
The most important chart is not the total number of cases in Australia. The most important chart is how many new cases there are per day as it tells a more interesting story. Easter weekend saw its lowest number of new cases per day, most likely attributed to less people being tested. From experience when it’s a public holiday there’s less staff at hospitals and medical centers working, and it basically goes into minimum staff to keep things ticking over.
Also overall daily numbers have dropped off since we’ve closed our borders and no planes are flying. Most of the cases at the peak were from people travelling back from overseas. So now we conclude that the new cases are directly the result of community transmission, either through known contacts or unknown strangers.
Some other interesting stats from Hong Kong.
Population: 7.5m
First case diagnosed: 23 Jan
Distance to Wuhan: 919km
Total cases as of 14 April: 1010
(149 cases till 15 Mar. Most new cases are returnees)
Total Death: 4
Mask wearing rate in public: 100%
Hand sanitizer available: everywhere
Less than a month ago government officials in the US were telling people wearing masks doesn’t work and nobody should have them, now you can be arrested if you don’t have one.
Some interesting observed side effect of all this
We’re doing the world of climate change a whole lot of good with everyone at home, I can’t find any scientific literature on this yet, but I’m sure it will be interesting. However species that were long thought to be extinct are now returning!
I’ve heard a few companies are not renewing their lease of their office space since they’ve adapted and found that this remote working has worked well for them.
Markets / Economics
Absolutely we should let companies fail, including airlines. I agree with everything that Chamath Palihapitiya said. He’s also my favourite conversation of the week.
An interesting exercise is to look up the definition of a depression, and see if we meet the requirements:
Abnormally large increase in unemployment: Tick, lines at Centrelink down the street/
Fall in availability of credit: Tick, why do you think the fed have stepped in for the repo market.
Shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back: Tick and Tick, no one is buying anything in most retail, and if like me you have gone out in search of a boom arm for a microphone because there is none in Australia. Zero supply.
Sovereign debt default: Not yet, but can’t see that too far away with Italy in its current state.
Significant reduced amount of trade and commerce especially international trade: Tick, shipping into Australia is so difficult at the moment. I’m still waiting for delivery from the US.
Highly volatile currency value fluctuations: Tick
Stock market crash: Tick
Bank failures – Not yet, but just in case I’ve spread cash among different banks, different currencies, different jurisdictions etc. Lesson i learnt when we used to have FUM split between two custodians at my previous role.
The consensus seems to be we are only at the start of the start of what’s coming. The only people who have lived through the last depression 1929-late 1930s are either dead or have dementia, so we as a society have forgotten that they went through almost identical scenarios as what we are seeing right now. (Minus the pandemic, but they had that in the 1918-1920 with the Spanish flu, and that didn’t come with a stock market crash.)
No price charts today.
Just to leave you with something to think about. At the very bottom is a summary of all the people who have died in AU. Obviously they are all in the older age bracket. So to think about it, you are not socially distancing for your own health, it’s to help stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed and it’s for the protection of the parents and the grandparents in our lives. Because we too will be old one day, and to remind you of your own mortality, find which week you are up to in the following chart, and look how many more weeks you have in your own lives if you lived till 90. Hopefully it inspires you to put things into perspective, to not put things off, to be present with the people around you, to stop listening to the people who don’t know you well enough, and to do something more.
And of course I would have to sneak in a book recommendation. One of my favourite memoirs, from the Paul Kalanithi titled When Breath Becomes Air – He was a neurosurgeon who at the age of 36 went from treating the dying to a patient with lung cancer struggling to live.
- A 78-year-old man from West Australia died on 1 March 2020. He was a passenger on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
- A 95-year-old woman resident of the BaptistCare Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Sydney, NSW, died on 3 March 2020.
- An 82-year-old man who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 8 March 2020.
- A 77-year-old woman from the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, died on 13 March 2020. She was in NSW at the time.
- A 90-year-old woman who was also a resident at the aged care facility in NSW died on 14 March 2020.
- An 86-year-old man who tested positive for COVID-19 died in Sydney on 17 March 2020. It is not yet clear whether he was a previously confirmed case.
- An 81-year-old woman in NSW died on 20 March 2020. She was a contact of a confirmed case linked to Ryde Hospital in Sydney.
- A woman in her 70s died in Sydney on 24 March 2020. She was a passenger aboard the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- A 68-year-old man from Queensland died in Toowoomba on 25 March 2020. He contracted COVID-19 on board the Voyager of the Seas cruise ship.
10, 11, 12. On 26 March 2020, Victoria’s Chief Health Officer announced three men in their 70s had died in Melbourne.
- A West Australian man in his 70s died in Perth on 26 March 2020. He was a passenger on board the Celebrity Solstice cruise ship.
- A 91-year-old woman in NSW died on 28 March 2020. She was a resident at Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Macquarie Park, Sydney.
- A Victorian man in his 80s died in a Melbourne hospital on 29 March 2020.
- A 75-year-old woman in Queensland also died on 29 March 2020. She was a passenger on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- A woman in her 80s died in Tasmania on 30 March 2020. She was a passenger on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- An ACT woman in her 80s died in Canberra on 30 March 2020. She had acquired COVID-19 overseas.
- On 31 March 2020, the Tasmanian government announced an elderly man had died overnight. He was a passenger on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- A 95-year-old woman in NSW died on 1 April 2020. She was a resident at Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Macquarie Park, Sydney.
- A 67-year-old woman died in Orange, NSW, on 1 April 2020. She was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- A woman in her 70s died in Victoria on 2 April 2020.
- An 85-year-old Queensland man died at Toowoomba Hospital overnight on 2 April 2020.
- A woman in her 60s died in Melbourne, Victoria, on 2 April 2020.
- A Victorian man in his 80s died overnight on 3 April 2020.
- A 74-year-old woman died in Albury, NSW, overnight on 3 April 2020. She contracted coronavirus overseas.
- A 75-year-old man died in Wollongong, NSW, on 3 April 2020. He was a passenger on the Ovation of the Seas cruise ship.
- On 3 April 2020 a man in his 70s died in Perth. He was a German tourist and passenger on the Artania cruise ship.
- On 4 April 2020 a woman in her 70s died in Victoria.
- On 4 April 2020 a man in his 80s died in ACT.
31, 32, 33, 34. NSW announced on 5 April 2020 that four more people in the state had died: a 91-year-old from Port Macquarie, an 80-year-old and a 76-year-old who were being treated in Westmead, and a 61-year-old being treated in Hornsby.
- A 78-year-old Queensland man died on 5 April 2020. He was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
36, 37. Two people in NSW died on 6 April 2020.
38, 39. A man in his 50s and a woman in her 80s died in Victoria on 6 April 2020.
- A man in his 80s died in West Australia on 6 April 2020.
- A 90-year-old man died in NSW on 6 April 2020. He was a resident at Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in Macquarie Park, Sydney.
- A 90-year-old NSW man died in Liverpool, Sydney, on 6 April 2020.
- An 87-year-old woman died in NSW on 6 April 2020. She was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- A person in Victoria died overnight on 7 April 2020.
- A 75-year-old man in Adelaide, South Australia, died overnight on 7 April 2020.
- A man in his 80s died in Tasmania on 7 April 2020.
- A man in his 70s died in Perth, West Australia, on 7 April 2020. He was a tourist from overseas and a passenger on board the Artania cruise ship.
- A West Australian woman in her 70s died in Perth on 7 April 2020. She acquired coronavirus overseas.
- A person in Victoria died overnight on 8 April 2020.
- A 62-year-old South Australian woman died in Adelaide on 8 April 2020.
- A 76-year-old man from regional South Australia died overnight on 9 April 2020. The man acquired COVID-19 in the Barossa Valley.
- A man in his 80s died in Victoria overnight on 10 April 2020.
- A 69-year-old man died in Newcastle, NSW, overnight on 10 April 2020.
- A man in his 70s died in Tasmania on 10 April 2020.
- A man in his 80s died in Victoria overnight on 11 April 2020.
- A 91-year-old woman died in NSW overnight on 11 April 2020.
- A 74-year-old man from Adelaide died overnight on 12 April 2020. He was a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship.
- An 83-year-old man died in NSW overnight on 12 April 2020. He contracted coronavirus from a close contact.
- A Tasmanian woman in her 70s died on 12 April 2020. She was a patient at the North West Regional Hospital.
- A 74-year-old woman in Newcastle, NSW, died overnight on 13 April 2020.
- A 77-year-old man in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, NSW, died overnight on 13 April 2020.
Enjoy your week.